By Adam Timothy Group & Miguel Piña, CMG Home Loans

We hear it all the time: “I’ll refinance when rates go back to 3%.” Or, “I’ll buy once rates hit 5%.”

Here’s the reality: unless something truly awful happens in the economy, those 3% rates aren’t coming back. And waiting for exactly 5% before you buy a home might cause you to miss out on opportunities that are here right now.

At Adam Timothy Group, we’ve been reminding clients not to make decisions based on one number alone. Success in this market comes from looking at the full picture—monthly payments, equity, seller incentives, debt payoff strategies, and long-term goals. To bring perspective, our lending partner Miguel Piña of CMG Home Loans shares what he’s seeing on the financing side.

“Waiting for mortgage rates to dip below 5.75% is unlikely without a much weaker job market, lower inflation, and a more dovish Fed.”

— Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire

“We’ve seen rates flirt with 6% twice since 2022, but those dips were short-lived,” Miguel says. “Even though today’s job market is weaker than last year, the Fed is still modestly restrictive. Rates just aren’t going to fall as much as people are hoping for.”

For homeowners, that means refinancing can still make sense even if your current rate is between 5 and 6 percent. “Equity opens doors,” Miguel says. “You may be able to restructure your loan, pay off high-interest debt, or eliminate PMI. The savings are real, even without a massive drop in rates.”

Sharing a recent experience

One of Miguel’s clients owned his home outright with more than 50% equity. He wanted to buy a new primary home, but instead of selling his current one, Miguel worked with his realtor to find another option. By doing a cash-out refinance, the client was able to pull out enough equity for a full 20% down payment on the new home. The best part? The rent from his first house covered the new payment comfortably. Even though cash-out refinances can sometimes come with a higher rate, the rental income made the deal cash flow and opened the door for him to own two properties instead of one. By using equity strategically, he was able to grow his real estate holdings and build long-term wealth.

Adam Stanley • Timothy Powles • Miguel Piña

Tip 1 — Buy the Home, Refi the Rate Later

Don’t wait for a magic number. If the home, payment, and plan work today, capture the property and equity growth now. If rates improve, you can refinance; you can’t rewind a missed deal.

Tip 2 — Run the Full Payment Math

Price, taxes, insurance, HOA, PMI, and potential seller credits matter as much as rate. We model the total monthly so you see clear affordability—not just a headline APR.

Tip 3 — Use Credits & Points Strategically

Negotiate seller credits to cover closing costs or permanent buydowns. In some cases, a 2–3 point buydown beats waiting months for rates to drop.

For buyers, Miguel sees the same missed opportunities we do. “Too many people tell me they’ll buy when rates hit 5%. The problem is, they’re overlooking deals today. Home prices, seller incentives, and negotiation power can often impact your monthly cost more than half a point in rate. And unlike price, a rate can always be refinanced later.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the recent quarter-point cut as a “risk management” move, not the start of aggressive easing. Mortgage News Daily added: “It’s day two of mortgage rates surging higher—now back to the highest levels in 2 weeks … The juxtaposition of yesterday’s Fed rate cut and the sudden mortgage rate spike is incredibly confusing to most of the population.” Average 30-year fixed rates are hovering around 6.37%.

At Adam Timothy Group, we see clients miss opportunities by waiting for “perfect.” That’s why we partner with Miguel: so you’re not only getting a realistic view of your home’s market value, but also expert guidance on financing strategies that work with today’s reality.

The bottom line: stop waiting for perfect. Look at the full math. Whether it’s buying a home or refinancing one, the opportunity is in understanding your equity, your payment, and your goals—and being ready to act when the right window opens.