We hear it constantly: “I’ll refinance when rates go back to 3%,” or “I’ll buy once rates hit 5%.” The honest truth is that unless something genuinely bad happens in the economy, those 3% rates aren’t coming back — and holding out for an exact number can quietly cost you the opportunities sitting in front of you today.
Success in this market comes from the full picture — monthly payment, equity, seller incentives, debt payoff strategies, and long-term goals — not one figure in isolation. To ground that in what’s happening on the financing side, our lending partner Miguel Piña of CMG Home Loans shares what he’s seeing.
Waiting for mortgage rates to dip below 5.75% is unlikely without a much weaker job market, lower inflation, and a more dovish Fed.
Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire“We’ve seen rates flirt with 6% twice since 2022, but those dips were short-lived,” Miguel says. “Even though today’s job market is weaker than last year, the Fed is still modestly restrictive. Rates just aren’t going to fall as far as people are hoping.” Average 30-year fixed rates have been hovering near 6.37%.
For homeowners, that means refinancing can still make sense even with a current rate between 5% and 6%. As Miguel puts it, equity opens doors: you may be able to restructure your loan, pay off high-interest debt, or eliminate PMI. The savings are real, even without a dramatic drop in rates.
A real client story
One of Miguel’s clients owned his home outright with more than 50% equity and wanted to buy a new primary residence. Instead of selling, he did a cash-out refinance that pulled enough equity for a full 20% down payment on the new home. The rent from the first house covered the new payment comfortably. Even though cash-out refinances can carry a slightly higher rate, the rental income made the deal cash flow — and turned one property into two. Used strategically, equity became a path to long-term wealth.
Three Ways to Act Without Waiting
Buy the home, refi the rate later
Don’t wait for a magic number. If the home, payment, and plan work today, capture the property and equity growth now. If rates improve, you can refinance — you can’t rewind a missed deal.
Run the full payment math
Price, taxes, insurance, HOA, PMI, and potential seller credits matter as much as the rate. We model the total monthly payment so you see real affordability, not just a headline APR.
Use credits and points strategically
Negotiate seller credits toward closing costs or a permanent buydown. In some cases a 2–3 point buydown beats waiting months for rates that may never arrive.
For buyers, Miguel sees the same missed opportunities we do. “Too many people tell me they’ll buy when rates hit 5%. The problem is, they’re overlooking deals today. Home prices, seller incentives, and negotiation power often move your monthly cost more than half a point in rate — and unlike price, a rate can always be refinanced later.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the recent quarter-point cut as a risk-management move, not the start of aggressive easing. The takeaway for anyone waiting on the sidelines: small rate cuts don’t reliably translate into lower mortgage rates, and the two often move in confusing, opposite directions.
What This Means for You
At Adam Timothy Group, we watch clients miss opportunities by waiting for “perfect.” That’s why we partner with Miguel — so you get both a realistic view of your home’s market value and expert guidance on financing strategies built for today’s reality. The strongest moves come from understanding your equity, your payment, and your goals, then being ready to act when the right window opens.
- A rate can be refinanced later; a missed home usually can’t be recovered.
- Equity is a tool — for buying, restructuring, or eliminating PMI and high-interest debt.
- Total monthly payment tells you more about affordability than the headline rate.
- Seller credits and buydowns can outperform waiting for the market to shift.
Common Questions
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying?
Waiting for a specific number often means overlooking deals available now. Price, incentives, and leverage can affect your payment more than half a point in rate — and a rate can be refinanced later, while a missed home cannot.
Does refinancing make sense at 5%–6%?
It can. Even without a large rate drop, equity may let you restructure your loan, pay off high-interest debt, or remove PMI. When the strategy fits your goals, the savings are real.
What matters more than the rate?
The total monthly payment — price, taxes, insurance, HOA, PMI, and any seller credits — plus your equity position and long-term goals. Modeling the full picture gives you real affordability.
Ready to see the full picture?
Let’s look at your equity, your payment, and your goals together, then build a plan that works whether you’re buying or refinancing. Start with a conversation or a quick home valuation.
