October Market Shift: Opportunities Rise as Austin Real Estate Balances Out​

Market Perspectives Blog Post

October Market Shift: Opportunities Rise as Austin Real Estate Balances Out

The Austin real estate market continued its balancing act in October, with notable shifts in home prices, sales volume, and inventory levels reflecting broader economic dynamics. Let’s dive into the specifics of how these figures and broader economic factors are shaping the real estate landscape in Austin and beyond.

In October, the Austin-area real estate market saw some noticeable shifts, with buyers finding more flexibility and sellers navigating a landscape that’s settling after recent highs. Across the Austin-Round Rock area, home sales were down 12%, and average prices dipped by 2.2% to $561,623. For those looking within Austin’s city limits, home values held strong, with average prices up 4% even as sales volume dropped 8.7%.

What stands out this month is the balance developing in the market. Higher inventory and longer days on the market are creating breathing room for buyers. At the same time, pending sales rose by over 12% across the area, showing that buyer interest remains steady as we head toward year-end. With mortgage rates around 6.625% for a 30-year loan, buyers and sellers alike are adapting to new opportunities and challenges.

City of Austin Highlights

Homes Sold: 661 homes, an 8.7% decrease from last year
Average Sale Price: $780,909, up 4.0%, showing value retention in the city
Close-to-List Price: 91.5%, down slightly by 0.65% from last year
Days on Market: 70 days, up by 10 days year over year
Inventory: 4,036 active listings, with 6.11 months of inventory, offering buyers more options
New Listings: Up by 1.7%, totaling 1,170
Pending Sales: Up 21.9% to 763, reflecting renewed buyer interest

Austin-Round Rock MSA Highlights

Homes Sold: 2,353 homes, down 12% from last year
Average Sale Price: $561,623, a 2.2% decrease year over year
Close-to-List Price: Homes closed at 92.7% of their list price, a slight drop from last year
Days on Market: 71 days on average, up by 7 days from last year
Inventory: 13,863 active listings, with 5.9 months of inventory, suggesting a balanced market
New Listings: Increased by 5.5%, reaching 3,962
Pending Sales: Up 12.5%, signaling potential for more future closings
Total Sales Volume: $1.32 billion, down 10.1% year over year

Mortgage Rates and Broader Economic Indicators

Mortgage rates remain a significant factor impacting buyer affordability. As of late October, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was around 6.625%, while the 15-year fixed rate was 5.875%. While these rates add cost considerations for buyers, the broader housing market is showing resilience. For example, pending home sales exceeded expectations in September, increasing 7.4% month-over-month—a promising sign for future closings.

Broader economic trends add context to these real estate dynamics

Pending Home Sales: Surged 7.4% month-over-month in September, exceeding expectations.
Job Market: Job openings (JOLTS) fell below expectations, with 7.4 million reported in September, pointing to a cooling job market.
Inflation: The Core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations and reflecting controlled inflation.
Unemployment: Continuing jobless claims fell by 26,000 to 1.86 million, with initial claims also declining, reflecting stable employment levels.

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, the current market offers increased choices and negotiation potential, particularly with extended days on the market and lower close-to-list price ratios. Sellers should be mindful of the higher inventory levels, pricing competitively, and preparing for slightly longer sales timelines.

The October market reflects a realignment phase, moving toward balance in Austin and its surrounding areas. Both buyers and sellers stand to benefit from these conditions, with buyers finding more options and sellers retaining strong values, especially within the city of Austin.

At Adam Timothy Group, we know that an informed client makes the best decisions. Our team is dedicated to providing you with expert insights and personalized guidance, whether you’re buying, selling, or simply looking to understand the current market. We don’t just facilitate transactions; we’re here to build relationships, supporting your goals today and for the future.

Let’s Talk. Contact us today.

Happy Fall Y’all!

Adam and Timothy

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